Turkish-backed rebel and opposition forces, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are making significant territorial gains in northwestern Syria, advancing deeper into the Latakia Governorate.
The advance, which began as part of a broader offensive this week, has brought rebel units to within approximately 20 miles of Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base, a key strategic asset for Moscow along the Mediterranean coast.
Early yesterday morning, rebel forces, which include HTS and other allied factions, reached the town of Qalaat Al Madiq, located northwest of Hama. The town, which lies in a strategically important area that bridges the western coastal regions and the rest of northwestern Syria, fell into rebel hands after a swift advance that overwhelmed Syrian regime defenses.
As the rebel forces continue their westward push, they increasingly threaten Khmeimim Air Base, a critical Russian foothold in Syria that has played a pivotal role in supporting President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The base, located just 35 kilometers (about 22 miles) from the advancing rebel lines, serves as a major hub for Russia’s air operations in the region and is integral to maintaining Moscow’s influence in Syria and the broader Middle East.
The rapid advance towards Latakia has reportedly caught regime forces off guard, with Syrian troops struggling to maintain a coherent defensive line against the well-coordinated and highly motivated rebel groups. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, has taken the lead in this offensive, utilizing a combination of ground assault units and artillery support to dislodge Syrian forces from key positions along the way.
The threat to Khmeimim Air Base has prompted an increased level of concern from Russian military officials, with reports suggesting that additional security measures are being put in place at the base. Russian forces, which have been stationed in Syria since 2015 to aid the Assad regime, are actively monitoring the advance, and several airstrikes have been reported targeting rebel positions in an effort to slow their progress.
The offensive comes amid a period of heightened instability in northwestern Syria, with multiple factions vying for control in a landscape further complicated by ongoing Turkish involvement and shifting alliances. Rebel gains in the Latakia Governorate are particularly significant due to the proximity to the Mediterranean coastline, where Russia has long sought to establish a permanent military presence.
In response to the rebel offensive, Russian warplanes conducted a series of airstrikes aimed at disrupting supply lines and regrouping forces behind the front lines. Despite this, the rebel fighters—emboldened by their rapid successes over the past week—appear determined to maintain their momentum as they push further westward.
The current rebel advance is seen as one of the most substantial threats to the Assad regime in recent years.
Russian warships leave Syrian naval base
Russia appears to be withdrawing key naval assets from its strategic Mediterranean base at Tartus, Syria.
On December 2, 2024, the Russian auxiliary ship Yelnya departed from Tartus. Reports indicate that two frigates, another auxiliary vessel, and a submarine also left the port.
The move comes amidst rapid changes in the Syrian Civil War. Forces opposing the Assad regime, a long-standing Russian ally, have gained momentum and are advancing toward Damascus. While Moscow has not officially commented on the redeployment, analysts suggest the withdrawal may reflect growing concerns about the stability of the Assad government and the security of Russian military assets.
Naval analyst Droxford Maritime remarked on social media platform X, “There is a realistic possibility that this movement is directly tied to the deteriorating situation in Syria.” He highlighted the importance of Yelnya, a Project 160 Altay-class oiler, noting that it plays a critical role in sustaining Russia’s Mediterranean operations.
Tartus has been a pivotal asset for Russia’s naval strategy since 1971, providing a foothold in the Mediterranean. After years of limited use following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the base gained renewed importance during the Syrian Civil War. In recent years, Tartus became a key logistics hub for Russia’s intervention in Syria and served as a counterweight to NATO’s presence in the region.
The potential withdrawal of assets now could signal a reassessment of Russia’s commitments in Syria amid broader geopolitical pressures.
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