Most Russian MANPADS use infrared (heat-seeking) guidance, meaning they home in on the heat emitted by an aircraft’s engines or other heat sources rather than on radar. They are intended for engaging low-flying aircraft and helicopters at short range.
In a social media post, an untrained Russian soldier is shown firing a heat-seeking man-portable missile at a Ukrainian drone flying above a burning fuel depot. The missile instantly veered off course toward the heat source: the burning fuel depot, missing the drone completely.
The Russian missiles have already proven ineffective in the Ukraine war. Most of the S-500, S-400, S-300, Pantsir, Buk, Tor, and Pechora have failed to prove they are worth the Russian brochure.
Russian MANPADs
9K333 Verba – Russia’s newest widely known MANPADS, using a multi-band infrared seeker designed to improve target discrimination and reduce effectiveness against flares.
9K38 Igla – A more infrared-guided system introduced in the 1980s, but susceptible to electronic countermeasures and reducing all-aspect engagement capability.
9K338 Igla-S – An upgraded version of the Igla, promoted as having better seeker performance, range, and effectiveness against aircraft and some cruise missiles, but failed to prove in the Ukraine war.
Key problem areas
There is broad evidence that Russian MANPADS themselves have been a systemic failure in the war in Ukraine.
Russian MANPADS have remained ineffective in their intended role. Systems such as the 9K38 Igla and 9K333 Verba have been used by Russian forces to threaten Ukrainian helicopters, drones, and low-flying aircraft.
The Russian side suffered heavy aircraft losses from MANPADS, namely RBS-70. Early in the war, Russian aircraft were forced to fly at low altitude because they could not fully suppress Ukrainian air defenses. That exposed them to Ukrainian MANPADS, while Ukrainian aircraft flying low faced the same threat from Russian MANPADS.
The larger Russian failure was airpower, not the MANPADS. Analysts generally attribute Russia’s inability to gain air superiority to shortcomings in planning, intelligence, suppression of enemy air defences (SEAD), and command and control, as well as broader anti-air missiles failures, including failures of shoulder-fired missiles.
Small drones have exposed limitations. Commercial quadcopters and many small UAVs produce much less infrared signature than helicopters or jets. Heat-seeking MANPADS are therefore often a poor choice against these targets, leading both sides to rely increasingly on anti-aircraft guns, electronic warfare, and specialised drone interceptors instead.
Videos circulating online sometimes show apparent MANPADS misses or unusual launches. Possible explanations include the seeker never achieving a lock, the target having too little of an infrared signature, countermeasures such as flares, operator error, or a simple miss distance.
There are documented instances of individual MANPADS missing their targets; the available evidence does support the patterns that Russian heat-seeking MANPADS, as a class, have performed poorly in Ukraine. The more widely recognised Russian shortcomings have been in air-campaign execution and in the basic ineffectiveness of Russian weapons.
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