While the development of China’s naval air arm and the US Navy’s show of force against Iran have captured media attention, there is a third emerging naval power whose trajectory should not be ignored. The Indian Navy, in fact, operates two 45,000-ton aircraft carriers, the INS Vikramaditya and the new INS Vikrant, the latter being the first aircraft carrier of entirely Indian design.
And New Delhi doesn’t intend to stop there, as a third, or even a fourth, aircraft carrier is planned in the coming years. To replace, starting in 2035, the MiG-29Ks currently equipping the INS Vikramaditya, the Indian Navy had until now been relying on the TEDBF program, its first national carrier-based fighter. But while this program seems likely to be delayed by several years, a rumor appears to be gaining traction in the Indian specialized press: that of a new order for 31 Rafale M, after the 26 aircraft ordered in 2025 to arm the INS Vikrant.
Historically close to the Soviet Union, then to Russia, India naturally turned to Russian aircraft manufacturers to arm its first aircraft carriers, also of Soviet design, after emancipating itself from Great Britain in this field in the 2000s, to replace the INS Viraat (ex-HMS Hermes) and its Sea Harriers.
This is how, in 2013, the INS Vikramaditya, formerly Admiral Gorshkov, a Soviet kyiv-class anti-submarine aircraft carrier converted into a 45,000-ton STOBAR aircraft carrier, i.e., equipped with a ski-jump and arresting wires, and a fleet of about forty MiG-29Ks, comparable to those that armed the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov of the Russian fleet, entered service simultaneously.
However, the true replacement for the Viraat, decommissioned in 2017, was not the Vikramaditya, but the INS Vikrant, the first aircraft carrier entirely designed and built in India. Also displacing 45,000 tons, it is significantly more modern than its predecessor, but has retained the STOBAR configuration.
The real change surrounding the INS Vikrant lies not in its size, deck area, or propulsion, but in its fighter fleet. Indeed, following a competition that spanned more than five years, the Rafale The French M emerged victorious from its confrontation against the American Boeing F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet, while the MiG-29 upgraded to the MiG-35 standard offered by Rosoboronexport did not even reach the final.
The disappointing performance of the Russian carrier-based fighter finally convinced the Indian Admiralty of the need to replace it on board its aircraft carriers with its designated successor, the Twin Engine Deck-Based Fighter (TTBF), starting in 2035, while, at the same time, Beijing had already begun testing the 5th generation J-35 on board its new CATOBAR (catapult and arresting wire) aircraft carrier, the Fujian.
Faced with an uncertain TEDBF, the Indian Navy is evaluating an order of 31 Rafale Additional M
The design of the TEDBF was naturally entrusted to the national aircraft manufacturer HAL. However, the timeline announced in the 2020s, for entry into service in 2035, left many observers perplexed. Indeed, HAL had encountered numerous problems and imposed countless delays on the IAF’s (Indian Air Force) Tejas program, a light single-engine fighter far less complex than a carrier-based twin-engine aircraft, forcing the IAF to modify its design even before receiving the production aircraft.
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