U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to unilaterally revise a 38-year-old arms control treaty that would allow the selling of sophisticated Reaper-style and other advanced military drones abroad, Reuters reported recently, citing a U.S. official and four people familiar with the plan.
The new interpretation would unlock the sale of more than 100 MQ-9 drones to Saudi Arabia, which the kingdom requested in the spring of this year and could be part of a $142 billion arms deal announced in May. U.S. allies in the Pacific and Europe have also expressed interest.
By designating drones as aircraft like the F-16 rather than missile systems, the U.S. will sidestep the 35-nation Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) agreement it signed in 1987, propelling drone sales to countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Eastern European nations that have struggled to get their hands on America’s best unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
The new policy will allow General Atomics, Kratos and Anduril, which manufacture large drones, to have their products treated as “Foreign Military Sales” by the State Department, allowing them to be easily sold internationally, according to a U.S. official speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity.
This effort is the first part of a planned “major” review of the U.S. Foreign Military Sales program, the official said.
A U.S. Department of State spokesperson declined to comment.
Under the current interpretation of the MTCR, the sale of many military drones is subject to a “strong presumption of denial” unless a compelling security reason is given and the buyer agrees to use the weapons in strict accordance with international law.
The MTCR was originally meant to curb the sale of long-range missiles that can deliver weapons of mass destruction. Though drones were invented many years later, they were considered within the scope of the MTCR due to their ability to fly long distances and carry weapons.
U.S. drone manufacturers are facing stiff competition overseas, especially from Israeli, Chinese and Turkish rivals who often sell under lighter restrictions.
Neither China nor Israel is a signatory to the MTCR, and as a result, they have won sales in the Middle East. Türkiye signed on to the MTCR in 1997 but has been able to showcase its Bayraktar-TB2 drones against Russian forces in Ukraine because it is shorter-range, lighter and covered under a different standard under the treaty than heavier drones like the Reaper.
Russia has been using both domestic and Iranian drones to attack Ukraine. The U.S. has not been selling or donating large drones to Kyiv for fear that advanced technologies could fall into enemy hands.
Global competition for market share is white hot because military drones and drones adapted from consumer technology are seen as integral to the modern battlefield.
The U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity said the new guidelines will allow the U.S. “to become the premier drone provider instead of ceding that space to Türkiye and China.”
An exact date for the unveiling of the new drone sale guidelines has not been determined.
A revamp of the Foreign Military Sales program was expected later this year and the administration is working now on its “roll out,” the people said.
The change is being timed to benefit the makers of the large, advanced jet-engine-powered drones, who are developing a new generation of drones that can fly alongside piloted fighter jets as wingmen, a promising new market for the technology.
All drone sales would still be subject to the U.S. government’s Foreign Military Sales process, which examines a customer’s regional dynamics, human rights track record and ability to safeguard a weapons system.
One of the first large sales that may come after the reinterpretation may be to Saudi Arabia.
Former U.S. President Joe Biden had adopted a tougher stance on weapons sales to Saudi Arabia in 2021, citing the kingdom’s use of U.S. military equipment in its campaign against the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen. But ties between the kingdom and the U.S. have warmed since then, as Washington has worked more closely with Riyadh in the aftermath of Hamas’ attack on Israel and subsequent war in Gaza, as well as following the election of Trump and his recent trip to the Gulf.
The White House is expected to tout the move as part of Trump’s broader initiative to create jobs and reduce the U.S. trade deficit. However, human rights and arms control advocates warn that it risks fueling violence and instability in regions such as the Middle East and South Asia.
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