Israel’s high-tempo aerial campaign against Iran is triggering concern among Russian defence analysts and military circles, as parallels emerge between the exposed vulnerabilities of Tehran’s air defence systems and Moscow’s troubled record in Ukraine.
Currently, India, Algeria, and China are actively using the S-400 surface-to-air missile system. China developed a reverse-engineered variant of the S-400, known as the HQ-19 anti-air missiles. In addition to the S-400 missile system, India, China, Egypt, Belarus, Algeria, and Myanmar utilise Russian-made anti-aircraft missiles, including the Pantsir, Buk-M2, S-300, S-300PMU, and S-300PMU2 variants.
Iran also developed a domestic variant of the S-300PMU missile, known as the BAVAR-373 anti-air missile, which features a Russian phased array radar. Iran’s complete failure to intercept a single Israeli fighter jet or cruise missile will undoubtedly raise questions about Russian-made missile systems, and Russian arms buyers are asking questions about what would happen to them if their adversaries strike them on their home soil.
Following Israeli strikes that penetrated deep into Iranian territory and destroyed key air defence assets with minimal resistance, Russian military observers have begun openly questioning the reliability of their systems.
According to Russian-language military forums and unofficial commentary shared across pro-Kremlin channels, the Israeli operation has amplified existing doubts about Russia’s capacity to withstand a coordinated assault from a technologically advanced adversary such as NATO. As one commentator put it, “Everyone here understands this is exactly what would happen to Russia if any NATO country decided to act.”
While Ukraine has relied on cost-effective systems such as HIMARS launchers, modified drones, and older-generation AGM-88 HARM anti-radiation missiles to degrade Russian defences, Israel’s strikes against Iran have involved large-scale, advanced cruise missiles and multi-layered air assault strategies. Despite these differences in scale and sophistication, the outcomes have exposed similar weaknesses in Russian and Iranian air defence architecture, much of which is rooted in shared design principles and legacy platforms.
Defence analysts in Moscow are reportedly acknowledging that Iranian systems—some modelled on or directly derived from Russian technologies—were unable to provide any sustained resistance even during the second day of Israeli airstrikes.
One recurring assessment circulating in Russian defence circles states, “Absolutely powerless air defence, when what we see in the crosshairs is all we’ve got.”
Complex data is also fueling Russian concern. According to the independent monitoring group Oryx, Russia has lost at least 335 air defence systems since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. These losses include 18 S-400 launchers, one S-350, over 30 Pantsir-S1 units, and nearly 60 Tor systems. The figures are drawn from visually confirmed battlefield losses and are considered a conservative estimate.
While Russia has repeatedly touted the effectiveness of systems like the S-400 in deterring Western aircraft and missiles, combat experience in Ukraine has shown otherwise. The persistent effectiveness of Ukrainian HIMARS strikes and drone attacks—some conducted with relatively low-cost platforms—has led to growing scepticism about Russia’s claim to field a fully layered and resilient air defence network.
Now, with Iran’s Russian-supported defences failing in the face of an Israeli campaign, Moscow’s military establishment is being forced to reassess both doctrine and capability. The fear, voiced increasingly openly, is that in the event of a NATO-led operation, Russia’s strategic missile assets and high-value infrastructure could be targeted and destroyed in a matter of hours.
The Israeli campaign, although not directed at Russia, has served as a live demonstration of what advanced, coordinated airpower can achieve against outdated or poorly integrated air defences—many of which share a direct lineage with Russia’s systems.
As the air war over Iran enters its next phase, the consequences are being felt far beyond the Middle East. For Moscow, the message is clear: if Tehran’s defences failed this quickly, similar vulnerabilities could exist much closer to home.
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