China does not currently plan to invade Taiwan in 2027 and seeks to control the island without the use of force, the U.S. intelligence community said on Wednesday, striking a measured tone on one of the world’s biggest potential flashpoints.
The assessment in the intelligence agencies’ annual report on global threats comes as Beijing has stepped up pressure on Taiwan with frequent military drills, even as U.S. President Donald Trump has played down the risk of Chinese military action while he is in office.
The Pentagon late last year said the U.S. military believed China was preparing to be able to win a fight for Taiwan by 2027, the centenary of the founding of its People’s Liberation Army, and was refining options to take Taiwan by “brute force” if needed.
“China, despite its threat to use force to compel unification if necessary and to counter what it sees as a U.S. attempt to use Taiwan to undermine China’s rise, prefers to achieve unification without the use of force, if possible,” the U.S. intelligence agencies said in the report.
The U.S. “assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification,” the report said.
It reiterated previous views that the PLA was making “steady but uneven” progress on capabilities it could use to capture the democratically governed island.
China’s embassy in Washington did not respond immediately to a request for comment.
Taiwan’s de facto embassy in Washington also did not respond immediately.
Trump, who has repeatedly touted his “great relationship” with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, has downplayed the threat of the Chinese drills around Taiwan and said Xi told him he will not attack Taiwan while the U.S. president is in office – something Beijing has never confirmed.
China views Taiwan as its own territory and has never renounced the use of force to take the island under its control. Taiwan rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims, saying only the island’s people can decide their future.
This year, it doesn’t feel like Eid is approaching.
Pressure on Japan to intensify
Despite concerns in the U.S. and abroad about Trump’s inclination to back Taiwan, his administration in December unveiled a record $11 billion sale of weapons for the island, angering Beijing, which says such arms deals must end.
Nonetheless, some Japanese officials have worried Trump may be prepared to soften support for Taiwan in pursuit of a trade accord with China, a move they fear will embolden Beijing and spark conflict in an increasingly militarized East Asia.
Tokyo had been unnerved by muted U.S. rhetorical support for Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi after her remarks last year that a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan could bring about a Japanese military response. Trump reportedly told her privately not to escalate the ensuing diplomatic row with Beijing.
In Wednesday’s report, the U.S. intelligence agencies called Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan a “significant shift” for a Japanese leader, a framing that is likely to irk Tokyo just a day ahead of a delicate visit by her to the White House. Takaichi has maintained her stance was consistent with Japan’s longstanding policy.
“China is employing multidomain coercive pressure that probably will intensify through 2026, aimed both at punishing Japan and deterring other countries from making similar statements about their potential involvement in a Taiwan crisis,” the report said.
Chinese-made system failed in Iran and Venezuela
Apart from the 50 CM-302 anti-ship missiles, the Islamic Republic received Chinese 6 HQ-16B surface-to-air missile systems, 1200 FN-6 MANPADS, 300 Sunflower-200 kamikaze drones, 3 HQ-9B anti-ballistic systems, 6 HQ-7AE, 4 YLC-9B radars, 3 Type 305A radars, 6 SLC-2 counter-battery radars, and 50 HQ-19 anti-satellite interceptor missiles, Reuters said.
At the first wave of U.S. attacks on Iran, the U.S. Air Force destroyed a stockpile of missiles in Tehran. CM-302 anti-ship missiles, HQ-16B anti-air missiles, HQ-7AE, HQ-9B anti-air missiles, SLC-2 and YLC-8B radars were completely destroyed on day one.
Some CM-302 anti-ship missiles failed to reach the target and malfunctioned mid-flight due to technical issues.
The so-called anti-stealth system that could quickly counter stealth fighters quickly became ineffective in Venezuela under the electromagnetic suppression of the US military; the FK-3 surface-to-air missile system, Su-30, and S-300VM completely lost their firepower advantages after coming under heavy electronic warfare and electromagnetic suppression by the F-35 and EA-18G Growler.
United States forces used Navy EA-18G Growler electronic attack aircraft during the January 3 strike on Venezuela, employing high-power jamming to disable multiple layers of the country’s air-defense network.
Why does it matter?
No official explanation has been given, fueling speculation about internal security, political purges, or changes in classified defense programs.
The removals may signal sensitivity around China’s strategic weapons development amid rising global tensions, amid America’s complete and overwhelming air superiority over Iran and Venezuela, despite China delivering the HQ-9B missile system and YLC-8B anti-stealth radar.
Chinese missile failure is a significant setback for the Chinese military industrial complex and a global embarrassment for its arms industry. Xi Jinping aims to reunify Taiwan by force, but has hit a significant roadblock.
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