An analysis published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies outlines Japan’s expected deployment of domestically developed long-range missile systems as part of an emerging “counterstrike” posture.
The report describes plans for fielding systems such as the Hyper Velocity Gliding Projectile (HVGP) and the upgraded Type-12 anti-ship missile between fiscal years 2025 and 2027.
The shift toward stand-off strike weapons reflects Japan’s effort to expand its ability to engage hostile forces at longer distances amid a changing regional security environment. According to the analysis, the new missile systems are intended to allow the Japan Self-Defense Forces to hold adversary military assets at risk beyond Japan’s immediate coastline while defending remote islands and maritime approaches.
The IISS study describes how Tokyo is preparing to introduce several domestically developed missile platforms supported by expanded intelligence and targeting infrastructure. These weapons form part of Japan’s broader counterstrike concept, which relies on long-range precision weapons and improved surveillance capabilities to enable attacks against hostile forces threatening Japanese territory.
Among the systems highlighted in the analysis is the Hyper Velocity Gliding Projectile (HVGP) developed by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. The ground-launched weapon is designed for the defense of remote islands and combines elements of a ballistic missile and a hypersonic glide vehicle. After launch, the projectile separates from its booster rocket at high altitude and glides toward its target at very high speed.
The missile’s exact range has not been officially disclosed. However, the IISS analysis states that the initial version is believed to reach roughly 500 kilometers, with a longer-range follow-on model expected later.
Japan is also preparing to deploy the Upgraded Type-12 anti-ship missile, a redesigned version of the existing Type-12 system used by the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force. Although the name suggests a modification, the upgraded variant represents a largely new missile design with a low-observable profile and extended range.
The missile is expected to have a range of at least 900 kilometers, although Japanese authorities have not formally confirmed the figure. The upgraded Type-12 will be deployed across several launch platforms, including ground launchers, aircraft, and naval vessels.
Once operational, the missile will expand Japan’s maritime strike reach well beyond the capabilities of existing systems. The current ground-launched Type-12 anti-ship missile has a range of roughly 200 kilometers, while the ASM-2 (Type-93) air-launched missile used by the Japan Air Self-Defense Force has a range of around 180 kilometers.
The IISS map accompanying the analysis indicates possible deployment locations for ground-launched systems across Japan. These include Camp Kengun and Camp Ebino in Kyushu, Camp Fuji near Mount Fuji, Hyakuri Air Base, Yokosuka Naval Base, and Camp Kamifurano in Hokkaido, with deployment timelines extending from fiscal year 2025 through fiscal year 2027.
Japan is also preparing to integrate the Tomahawk land-attack cruise missile, a United States-built system capable of striking targets at distances of roughly 1,600 kilometers. According to the analysis, the Kongo-class guided-missile destroyer JS Chokai is scheduled to complete modifications and training in the United States that will enable the ship to operate Tomahawk missiles. Deliveries to Japan are expected to begin by the end of March 2026.
In parallel with these developments, Japan continues work on additional missile systems. The New Surface-to-Ship Missile being developed by Kawasaki Heavy Industries is designed to perform terminal-phase maneuvers to overcome defensive systems. Video released by Japan’s Acquisition, Technology & Logistics Agency in early 2026 showed a flight test in which the missile executed complex maneuvers during the final phase of its trajectory.
Japan is also advancing its hypersonic missile program intended for both land-attack and maritime strike missions. Prototypes of key components, including a scramjet engine, rocket booster, warhead, and seeker, are currently under development as part of that effort.
The effectiveness of Japan’s emerging stand-off strike capability will depend heavily on improved intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. According to the IISS analysis, Japan currently operates only nine ISR satellites, limiting its ability to detect and track targets across large areas.
To address this gap, Tokyo plans to develop a new satellite constellation capable of supporting long-range targeting operations. In October 2025, Japanese firm IHI Corporation signed a contract with Finland-based ICEYE to build a synthetic-aperture radar satellite network capable of detecting and tracking targets in all weather conditions. The agreement includes four initial satellites with options for up to twenty additional spacecraft.
Japan will receive priority access to imagery produced by the constellation, although the data may also support defense partners including Australia and the United Kingdom. Initial commissioning of the satellites and delivery of data are expected to begin in April 2026, with the full constellation projected to be completed by fiscal year 2029.
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