The Sun News has reported that Russia’s RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile exploded on the night of 18-19 May during the test launch, as warned by the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence said on Sunday that Moscow was planning to carry out a “combat training” launch of the RS-24 ICBM from a launch site near the village of Svobodny in the Sverdlovsk region of Russia.
Kyiv’s Main Directorate of Intelligence said the launch of the missile, equipped with training ammunition, was ordered to be carried out by the crew of the 433rd regiment of the 42nd division of the 31st Army of Russia’s strategic missile forces.
It added that the three-stage solid-propellant rocket’s flight range is more than 10,000 kilometers (6,200 miles).
The agency said the move was meant as an intimidation tactic against Ukraine, the European Union and member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
It is noted that if the launch had taken place, it would have been highly likely filmed by locals and made public.
“The Russians would also have been able to observe the missile flying. Given that the main Russian test site for intercontinental missiles is Kura in Kamchatka, this missile would have been visible over a large area of Siberia and the Far East, from Khanty-Mansiysk to Magadan. But no video of it has been published,” the media outlet says.
However, Defense Express reiterated that in 2023, the Russian Federation failed twice in a row to successfully launch RS-24 Yars missiles, which veered off course.
“After all, any missile undergoes pre-flight checks, and it is unlikely that the Kremlin is interested in demonstrating the inefficiency of its nuclear deterrent forces ahead of the talks between Putin and Trump,” the article states.
Defense Express also does not rule out an abnormal situation during the first stage of flight immediately after launch – despite the fact that the Yars is a deeply modernised version of the Topol, there is always a risk of failure. For example, at the end of September 2024, an RS-28 Sarmat exploded in a launch silo at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in Russia.
For reference: Yars, or RS-24, is a strategic system based on a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile. It was adopted by the Russian Federation in 2009.
The system is equipped with a separable warhead, which can have three to six warheads, depending on the modification. Each warhead can hit a different target.
The missile’s flight speed is reportedly up to 14 Mach, and its explosive power is equivalent to a million tonnes. Propagandists claim that no missile defence system is capable of shooting it down and that a Yars warhead can completely destroy a small city.
Prior to this, Defence Intelligence of Ukraine warned that on the night of 18-19 May, Russia was planning to carry out a demonstrative training and combat launch of the RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile.
On the evening of 9 May, the US Embassy in Ukraine called on its citizens to be cautious due to the risk of a large-scale airstrike “in the coming days”.
It later became known that Russia would close the airspace over the Kapustin Yar missile training ground for two days, 12 and 13 May, for the possible launch of ballistic missiles.
Unlike a previous test failure in February 2023, which U.S. officials confirmed, the latest mishap was visible to open-source analysts. Satellite images, taken Sept. 21 by Planet Labs and shared by analysts on social media and later corroborated by pictures published by Reuters from Maxar Technologies, demonstrated that a Sarmat test silo at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome was destroyed completely either during the missile test or after the test’s cancellation.
Military analysts quoted by Reuters said that it was not possible to identify the mode of failure.
This marked, at the very least, the second confirmed test failure for the Sarmat, and it cast doubt on the reliability of a critical component of Russia’s nuclear modernization program.
President Vladimir Putin unveiled the Sarmat ICBM as one of three next-generation missiles in his 2018 speech to the Russian Federal Assembly. Despite its poor testing record, Sarmat has been fast-tracked into the Russian strategic forces. Yuriy Borisov, the head of the state space corporation Roscosmos, told RIA Novosti on Sept. 1, 2023, that the Sarmat had been deployed for “combat duty.” A month later, Putin said at the Valdai International Discussion Club that only “administrative and bureaucratic procedures” needed to be completed before the missile moved to mass production.
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