Pakistan is playing both sides of the coin, supporting the U.S. since Field Marshal Asim Munir began a friendship with President Trump, signed a mutual security agreement with Saudi Arabia, an arch-rival of Iran in the Middle East and allowing weapons shipments from China to Iran via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
The Chinese commitment to invest US$46 billion into Pakistan is driven by two main considerations. China’s current $4 trillion in foreign trade and 7 million barrels of oil imports are largely dependent on sea lanes that can be choked by competing powers.
Convinced that the U.S. is seeking surrogates to contain its rise, China is seeking alternate and less vulnerable routes. Second, China has finally decided that its troubled but reliable (even dependent) friend, Pakistan, has problems that can best be handled by investing in its power sector and infrastructure development.
In the process, as a part of its larger One Belt, One Road (OBOR) strategy, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) gets a priority because this is the only network that connects China to the Arabian Sea –shortening its maritime distance with the energy rich Persian Gulf market by over 10,000 kilometers.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the flagship, ~$62 billion pilot project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), designed to connect China’s Xinjiang region to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea.
While it has improved Pakistan’s infrastructure and energy sectors, it has also raised concerns about debt, security challenges, and development disparities since its 2013 launch.
CPEC offers China a direct, shorter, and safer route to the Indian Ocean for energy imports, bypassing the Malacca Strait.
The initiative covers energy, transport infrastructure (roads, rail), and Special Economic Zones (SEZs). Key projects included upgrading the Karachi-Peshawar railway and constructing coal-fired power plants.
The deep-water Gwadar Port is considered the “jewel” of CPEC, meant to become a major regional trade hub.
CPEC has contributed to Pakistan’s rising debt crisis, which has led to balance-of-payments crises and required IMF bailouts.
Despite a 15,000-person security force, CPEC projects have been hit by terrorist attacks, particularly in Balochistan.
While bringing improvements in energy and logistics, CPEC has faced criticism for a lack of transparency and a perceived imbalance that favours Chinese contractors.
CPEC is rooted in military use
Following initial hurdles, CPEC has shifted towards smaller projects, with a “rebooted” focus on the military. China has signalled a commitment to continuing the project, viewing it as essential to navigating regional volatility, even as Pakistan works to manage the debt it has generated.
Based on March 2026 reports, Iran has been replenishing its missile arsenal following strikes by Israel and the U.S. using Chinese-supplied materials, including sodium perchlorate, a key solid-fuel precursor. These shipments are largely transported by sea from Chinese ports such as Zhuhai.
Reports indicate Chinese firms are supplying dual-use technology, such as radar systems, satellite navigation (BeiDou) kits, anti-air missiles, CM-302 anti-ship missiles and electronics for drones, which were transported to Iran via the land corridor between Pakistan and China.
Cargo ships operated by the sanctioned Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) were tracked departing Chinese ports with materials for missile propellants.
China provides components such as sensors, semiconductors, and voltage converters for Iranian drones and missiles.
Iran received YLC-8B radar, CM-302 anti-ship missiles, SLC-2 counter-battery radar, SF-200 drones and HQ-9B air defence systems from China as part of a $5 billion oil-for-weapons deal.
Analysts suggest that Beijing often uses intermediaries such as Pakistan or disguises military components as commercial trade through the land corridor to evade sanctions.
These transfers increased following the US/Israel attacks on Iranian facilities in early 2025 and 2026, destroying Chinese-made weapons on the first day of the Iran war.
The influx of Chinese-made technology, including 300 SF-200 kamikaze drones and radar, has been destroyed in Tehran.
Security impact on India
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) poses a significant security challenge to India by intensifying the Sino-Pakistani alliance, violating Indian sovereignty in Kashmir, and facilitating Chinese maritime presence near the Indian Ocean. It allows China to bypass the Malacca Strait while enabling Pakistan to upgrade its military infrastructure.
CPEC passes through Gilgit-Baltistan in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, a region India claims as its own. This infrastructure development is viewed as a direct challenge to Indian sovereignty and an attempt to formalize the status quo.
The development of Gwadar Port by China provides the Chinese navy with crucial access to the Arabian Sea, raising fears of a “string of pearls” strategy aimed at encircling India and diminishing its regional influence.
CPEC deepens the “all-weather” partnership between Beijing and Islamabad. This significantly strengthens Pakistan’s military, economic, and technological capabilities, increasing the likelihood of a coordinated two-front threat for India.
The corridor, particularly through Balochistan, risks exacerbating local unrest. India is sometimes accused by Pakistan of fostering this unrest, increasing tensions, while Pakistan’s increasing debt to China makes it more reliant on Beijing, further aligning their strategies against New Delhi.
India has responded by developing alternatives, such as the Chabahar Port in Iran, which is located only 75 km from Gwadar, to gain access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, thereby bypassing Pakistan.
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