US and Israeli officials are debating a high-risk special forces operation to seize Iran’s 460kg stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium stored in underground tunnels at the Isfahan Nuclear Facility, which could be converted into 11-15 nuclear warheads within weeks, according to the IAEA.
The mission would involve hundreds to over 1,000 troops in a multi-day raid deep inside Iran. Reports also mention Iran’s Foreign Minister privately approving moving the uranium to a third country as part of ceasefire negotiations.
World’s largest special operations mission
WSJ reported that President Trump has said preventing Iran from ever developing nuclear weapons is a central aim of the war he is waging. In the absence of regime change—or at least a deal to hand over its enriched uranium by Tehran’s leaders—that could mean seizing the country’s fissile material.
International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi said last week that around half of the 60%-enriched uranium was stored in a tunnel complex at the Isfahan nuclear site. A report earlier this month said the US believes there is a “very narrow access point” through which the material could potentially be retrieved.
Seizing the uranium amid the war would require a major operation, which former NATO commander James Stavridis told the Journal could be “the largest special operations forces in history.”
Combat troops would need to secure perimeters while engineers dug through tons of debris while checking for mines and booby traps, the newspaper reported.
To deliver the equipment to the site and move the recovered material out of the country, a local airfield would be required, and if none was available, a makeshift airfield would have to be set up as part of the operation, the report said.
And forces would likely come under drone and missile fire, requiring ground forces and planes to ward off the attacks.
Also noted in the report was the possibility of diluting or destroying the material rather than removing it, though this would bring the risk of contaminating the area.
On Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told CBS: “Our nuclear facilities were attacked, and everything is under the rubble.”
He said the regime has no plan to recover the material, but also that it is not willing to negotiate about the stockpile’s future while under fire.
Iran’s enriched uranium
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) calculated in its September 2025 verification and monitoring report that on the eve of the June 2025 attacks by Israel and the United States, Iran had in its possession 440.9 kg of uranium enriched up to 60% of the explosive uranium isotope, U-235. This and earlier IAEA Verification and Monitoring Reports provide a unique basis for understanding the implications of this stockpile.
The May 2025 IAEA verification and monitoring report provides redundant data to estimate the separative work capacity of Iran’s workhorse centrifuge “cascades,” each composed of 175 IR-6 centrifuges. Two different cases give 912 SWU per year.
The IAEA defines a “significant quantity” as “the approximate amount of nuclear material for which the possibility of manufacturing a nuclear explosive device cannot be excluded.” This corresponds, per the IAEA, to highly enriched uranium (above 20% U-235) containing 25 kg of U-235. By these parameters, Iran’s supply of 60% enriched uranium, when processed to so-called “weapons-grade,” 90% enrichment, would provide the fuel for nine nuclear weapons. Importantly, starting from the 60% enriched material, a single cascade of 175 IR-6 centrifuges could produce the “weapons-grade” material needed for one nuclear weapon every 25 days. With more cascades, this would go proportionally faster. According to the IAEA’s definitions, highly enriched uranium hexafluoride gas from a centrifuge is “direct use material” that can be converted to finished uranium metal components for use in nuclear weapons in 1–3 weeks.
Ali Larijani killed
The Israel Defense Forces announced the deaths of Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and Gholamreza Soleimani, Basij paramilitary commander, in precise overnight airstrikes near Tehran.
Larijani had stepped into a leadership role after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28 and oversaw crackdowns on anti-regime protests, while Soleimani directed violent repression that killed tens of thousands in January. Netanyahu linked the operation to Nowruz on March 21, with Iranian officials confirming the deaths as martyrdoms and vowing revenge amid ongoing escalation.
Nuclear program escalated into military conflict
A longstanding dispute over Iran’s nuclear program escalated into military conflict on February 28, with the US and Israel launching strikes against Iran and the Islamic Republic responding with attacks across the Middle East.
Tehran, which routinely calls for the destruction of Israel, maintains that its nuclear program is for purely civilian purposes. However, before the June war, Iran had been enriching uranium to levels far beyond what’s necessary for any peaceful application, and consistently obstructed international inspectors from checking its facilities. Israel has also said Iran was taking steps toward weaponization.
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