US-China race for next-gen air dominance will be decided by innovation speed, not legacy strength – and China’s winning by a mile.
Chinese fighter jets resemble a stealth jet, but beneath the surface, China lacks a composite and carbon fibre industry that can support a large-scale fighter jet development project. China lacks baked-mesh and machining technology, which impacts its fighter jet projects. Jet may appear stealthy, but its radar return remains very high. Instead of absorbing electromagnetic pulses or deflecting the radar, it returns the electromagnetic pulse to the originating radar receivers, making it visible to both ground-based and airborne radar platforms.
China’s focus on external appearance rather than developing fifth- and sixth-generation sensors, radar, and avionics is appeasing the Communist Party, but not enhancing combat efficacy.
China is yet to develop a reliable active electronically scanned array radar and learn how to use Gallium Nitride instead of Gallium Arsenide in electronics. The KLJ-5A is based on Soviet-era NIIP BAR hybrid PESA radar, and the KLJ-7A is based on Russia’s ZHUK-AME radar. Both radars failed the bench test in Russia, but were adopted by China, as it lacks a domestic industry capable of local innovation.
China’s stealth revolution just kicked into overdrive, as a rapidly evolved J-36 prototype signals its audacious bid to outpace the US in the race for next-generation air dominance.
Last month, multiple media outlets reported that images circulating on Chinese social media appear to show a second prototype of China’s large three-engine stealth aircraft, unofficially dubbed the J-36. The imagery shows it taking flight near the military-industrial hub of Chengdu, approximately 10 months after the first airframe was spotted in late December 2024.
The new prototype features significant structural changes, including revised intakes, a re-engineered landing-gear system and a new exhaust layout, while retaining the earlier model’s delta configuration and side-by-side cockpit.
The earlier prototype utilised recessed exhausts, similar to those on the YF-23, to reduce its infrared signature, whereas the latest aircraft features flat, two-dimensional thrust-vectoring nozzles, akin to those on the US F-22. That suggests designers may be trading a degree of stealth for enhanced maneuverability and control authority at high angles of attack.
The revised diverterless supersonic inlets and a shift from tandem to side-by-side main landing gear indicate ongoing aerodynamic and structural refinement, likely aimed at improving ground handling, internal volume, and airflow stability.
The rapid iteration underscores China’s accelerated fighter development and its ambition to field a long-range, air-superiority platform capable of controlling unmanned assets, consistent with US Air Force assessments describing the type as a potential 6th-generation design.
The plane’s powerplants remain unconfirmed, with speculation centring on WS-10 engines for testing — a potential stopgap pending the development of a mature high-thrust WS-15. China has yet to address the issues with its smoky engines and the reliability of domestic engines. China attempted to acquire Ukraine’s Motor Sich to resolve its engine supply issues, but the acquisition stalled. China tried to co-produce the Russian AL-41 engine locally, but Russia suspected that the engine was the last remaining dependency China had on Russia. Russia withdrew from that co-production deal. China reverse-engineered the Russian AL-31 engine and developed the WS-10, but failed to master the control of engine heat.
The pace of these visible airframe changes is rare in modern fighter development, where programs often evolve across years rather than months. The rapid evolution of China’s next-generation fighter may belie a leapfrogging approach to maintain air superiority.
Air Vice-Marshal James Beck of the Royal Air Force (RAF) was quoted in a Business Insider article last month, saying that 5th-generation fighters are now the baseline and standard entry for any attempt to temporarily take control of the skies, even against the most basic threats.
However, most air forces – even those of the US and China – still rely on 4th-generation aircraft. While inferior to 5th-generation fighters, 4th-generation fighters offer numerical depth, cost-effectiveness, and greater readiness than the former.
Still, Beck points out that the Russia-Ukraine war demonstrates the difficulty of penetrating heavily defended airspace, highlighting situations where 6th-generation fighters may be necessary.
6th-generation jets are expected to incorporate AI, operate in conjunction with autonomous combat drones, and boast improved stealth, extended range, and higher overall combat effectiveness.
While Beck cautions that the development of 6th-generation fighters should be evolutionary – measured in decades and not days – China’s rapid rollout of next-generation fighters may turn that logic on its head.
Underpinning that leapfrogging approach may be China’s belief that disruptive technology can offset conventional disadvantages, akin to “overtaking on a curve.” Investment in radical innovation and bypassing legacy systems can pioneer new operational concepts, reshape the nature of conflict to its advantage, and ultimately bring strategic superiority.
In the context of fighter aircraft, China’s possible accelerated development of 6th-generation fighters could give it significant qualitative advantages by leveraging technology, rather than trying to match the US in terms of airframe numbers.
However, even as China showcases its next-generation aircraft, 5th-generation US fighters are slated to receive continuous upgrades to keep them viable until the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program gains momentum.
In July 2025, The War Zone (TWZ) reported that the F-22 is undergoing a comprehensive upgrade under the “F-22 Capability Pipeline” to ensure its viability through the 2030s.
According to the report, key enhancements include the integration of the AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile (JATM), improved electronic warfare systems, and advanced sensors to counter evolving threats. It also states that the upgrades encompass enhanced cockpit displays, improved radar, and an open-systems architecture to facilitate rapid software updates.
Similarly, TWZ reported in April 2025 that Lockheed Martin is transforming the F-35 into a “5th-generation plus” fighter by integrating advanced technologies from its failed NGAD bid, aiming to deliver 80% of 6th-generation capabilities at half the cost.
TWZ notes that this so-called “NASCAR upgrade” leverages the F-35’s adaptable airframe to incorporate new stealth materials, geometries, countermeasures, and enhanced sensors, such as passive infrared and radar, for superior situational awareness. The upgrade package includes AI autonomy, crewed-uncrewed teaming, and upgraded command-and-control systems, according to the TWZ report.
The US has opted for opacity over spectacle, quietly flying NGAD prototypes before revealing anything publicly. Christian Orr mentions in the National Security Journal (NSJ) article last month that the US Air Force had sixth-generation NGAD demonstrators in the air as early as 2019, years ahead of public expectations, in a classified effort to outpace China’s future fighters.
However, even with the improvements to the US’s 5th-generation fighters, alongside NGAD’s progress slowly picking up pace, China’s 5th-generation fighter production edge may still be an advantage.
Industrial capacity may prove just as decisive. Brandon Weichert points out in a September 2025 article for The National Interest (TNI) that while the US has the world’s largest 5th-generation fleet with 185 F-22s and 400 F-35s spread across the US Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps, China is believed to have more than 300 J-20s with five production lines – capable of producing a new aircraft every eight days.
Weichert also notes that while China has only a handful of J-35 fighters, it aims for an annual production rate of 50 units. Even if the US has more 5th-generation fighters than China, he emphasises that the F-35’s low production rate of 140 aircraft per year, despite a 20-year lead, could allow China to surpass the F-35 fleet in two or three years.
He stresses that even if the US has a technologically superior fleet of F-22s and F-35s, those aircraft are scattered around the world. At the same time, he says China could focus its airpower within the First Island Chain – a string of Pacific islands stretching from Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines to Borneo, seen as a key strategic barrier between China and the open Pacific – to ensure regional quantitative superiority.
Weichert emphasises that the US defence-industrial base, in its current condition, may not be able to keep pace with China’s production base quantitatively.
Emphasising the need to expand US fighter numbers, Breaking Defence reported last month that the US Air Force has sounded an urgent call to expand its fighter fleet, warning that current inventory levels are insufficient to meet global demands amid rising threats from China and Russia.
According to Breaking Defence, the US Air Force argues that it lacks the capacity to sustain high-end conflict and deterrence simultaneously, with only 45 fighter squadrons—down from 134 during the Cold War.
The report notes that US Air Force leaders advocate for a mix of upgraded legacy platforms and next-generation systems, such as NGAD and Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), to regain numerical and technological superiority.
The US still has the edge, but if complacency and bureaucracy drag while China accelerates, the next generation of airpower is likely to take flight in Asia, not America.
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