Russia’s role as a major global arms supplier is under threat. This report analyzes how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the concomitant Western sanctions have affected its status as one of the top suppliers in the global arms trade.
According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Russia’s arms exports began falling in earnest in 2019, and were already down nearly 20 percent relative to 2011, the high-water mark for the Russian arms industry. This year, Russian arms exports nearly matched U.S. arms exports and were delivered to 35 different countries.
Eleven years later, Russian arms exports had fallen by nearly 70 percent, with deliveries to just 12 countries in 2022.
If the war on Ukraine dealt a knockout blow to Russia’s arms exports, the industry had already been on the ropes for some time.
Russian arms exports decreased to 8 of its 10 biggest recipients between 2013–17 and 2018–22. Exports to India, the largest recipient of Russian arms, fell by 37 percent, while exports to the other 7 decreased by an average of 59 percent. Russian arms exports decreased to China (minus 39 percent) and Egypt (minus 44 percent), and they used to be Russia’s second and third largest recipients.
Russia’s role as a major global arms supplier is under threat. This report analyzes how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the concomitant Western sanctions have affected its status as one of the top suppliers in the global arms trade.
The Russian arms export industry has been declining in its international competitiveness since the early 2010s due to previous packages of Western sanctions aimed at deterring third countries from purchasing Russian weapons, as well as the efforts by China and India to strengthen their domestic arms production.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the subsequent sanctions have aggravated these issues by straining Russia’s defense production capacity, negatively affecting the reputation of Russian arms, and complicating payment options for the Kremlin’s existing customers. Russia is struggling to meet its arms sales commitment to its partners, calling into question its reliability.
While Moscow still retains its competitiveness in areas such as missile and air defense systems, aircraft, armored vehicles, naval systems, and engines, recent trends suggest that Russian arms exports in virtually all of these major weapons categories will decline.
Available evidence also signals that Russia’s biggest customers, including India and China, will most likely become less reliant on Russian arms exports due to ongoing import substitution and diversification efforts in these countries, which have been strengthened since 2022 because of the growing instability of Russia’s defense industrial base affecting Russian arms deliveries worldwide.
Therefore, Russia will struggle to compete for sales in the high-value market for advanced military systems. However, Moscow will likely continue to maintain its strong position in the lower-cost market, as Russian systems remain widely used, relatively proved less reliable in the Ukraine war, and become cost-prohibitive. While Indian, Chinese, and Egyptian deliveries will likely have significant monetary value and thus the inability to insulate Russia’s declining arms export industry, they will continue to bring trouble to the Kremlin, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
© 2023, GDC. © GDC and www.globaldefensecorp.com. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this site’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to www.globaldefensecorp.com with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.
Be the first to comment