As IRGC bombs Qatari, Saudi and UAE oil refineries, it will be a historic first event when Saudi Arabia decides to join USA-Israeli operations against Iran dragging Pakistan into conflict under the mutual security pact Saudis signed last year with Pakistan.
If Saudi Arabia joins the US-Israeli war on Iran, it will activate its mutual defence pact with Pakistan and potentially lean on the South Asian country’s nuclear arsenal, a Saudi Arabian analyst told Canada’s CBC News.
“If the Saudis were to decide to enter with complete force…Iran is going to be the biggest loser because Saudi Arabia will activate its bilateral defence agreement with Pakistan,” Salman al-Ansari, a Saudi Arabian geopolitical researcher, said in an interview.
“We can say it literally that there is a nuclear umbrella over Saudi Arabia,” he added.
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a mutual defence agreement last year, following an Israeli attack on Hamas negotiators in Doha, Qatar.
At the centre of the agreement is a principle similar in structure to Nato’s Article 5, which details collective defence obligations.
Official statements from both governments describe the pact as stipulating that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both”. In theory, such language suggests that Pakistan could be obliged to assist if Saudi Arabia comes under sustained attack.
Saudi Arabia has already been targeted by Iranian ballistic missiles and drones. Iran has attacked the US embassy in Riyadh, Prince Sultan Air Base, as well as the kingdom’s energy infrastructure.
‘We have a defence pact with Saudi Arabia’
The kingdom’s oil exports have also been impacted by Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline from the Gulf has allowed it to bypass Hormuz and continue selling roughly four million barrels per day (bpd) of crude on the market. The kingdom exported around seven million bpd before the war.
Saudi Arabia, along with other Gulf states, lobbied US President Donald Trump not to join the war on Iran, but as Iranian attacks have intensified, there is a growing debate about how much support Riyadh should provide the US for offensive operations and even join the attacks.
Saudi Arabia’s defence pact with Pakistan adds an additional layer to the war, underscoring how the fighting could spread across the globe if not contained.
Saudi Arabia has so far relied on Pakistan to mediate with Iran.
Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said earlier this month that he had directly raised the defence pact in conversations with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
“We have a defence pact with Saudi Arabia, and I conveyed this to the Iranian side,” Dar said, adding that Tehran responded by seeking assurances that Saudi territory would not be used as a launchpad for attacks against Iran.
In addition to its diplomatic and defence ties with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan is reliant on the Gulf for crude oil and natural gas.
This week, the Pakistan-flagged ship, the Karachi, also known as the Lorax, became the first vessel carrying non-Iranian crude to transit through Hormuz, with its ship-tracking data, called the Automatic Identification System, on.
The vessel belongs to Pakistan’s state-owned National Shipping Corporation, and its oil was from the UAE.
Analysts say Pakistan likely negotiated transit with Iran’s government.
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