For years, military theorists and political scientists have argued that airpower is overrated and, in some ways, outmoded. Some point to the proliferation of small, cheap unmanned drones as evidence that traditional air superiority—the ability to control the skies—has been rendered obsolete. According to this view, technological innovation has made “air denial”—merely restricting an adversary’s ability to operate freely in the air—a sufficient replacement.
Israeli and American Air Forces F-15, F-16 and F-35 are flying freely over Tehran unimpeded and uncontested by the so-called Russia-made S-400 and Chinese-made HQ-9B air defence systems and YLC-8B radar. Video and footage surfaced in the X showing an Israeli fighter jet roaming freely over Tehran and bombing unimpeded.
This is most likely American EA-18G Growler has destroyed most of the radar systems of HQ-9B and S-400 surface-to-air missiles. Video footage also shows the Israeli air force bombing a missile launcher in Tehran.
At 8:14 a.m. local time in Israel — 9:44 a.m. in Tehran — red alert sirens sounded across the State of Israel. Seconds later, mobile phones buzzed with a Home Front Command directive: stay near protected spaces. Within minutes, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz signed a special emergency order under the Civil Defense Law, imposing a nationwide state of emergency. The reason was straightforward. Israel and the United States had just launched a preemptive military campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The operation — designated “Sha’agat HaAri” (Roar of the Lion) by the IDF and Prime Minister Netanyahu, also referenced as “Magen Yehuda” (Shield of Judah) in early Hebrew-language reporting — represents the most significant American combat operation in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the most consequential Israeli military action since the state’s founding. It is not a limited strike. It is not a signaling exercise. A US official told Reuters the administration planned a “multiday operation.” A person briefed on the campaign told NPR that Israel’s military focus centered on Iran’s missile program, with broader strikes against regime command infrastructure executed in coordination with American forces.
The Opening Salvo
Israeli fighter jets, operating in cooperation with US military assets, struck dozens of targets across Iran in rapid succession. The first wave hit Tehran’s political and security nerve center. Among the confirmed targets: the office compound of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence, the Ministry of Defense, the Atomic Energy Organization headquarters, and the presidential institution near Pasteur Square. Seven missiles struck the district housing Khamenei’s residence, the presidential palace, and the National Security Council.
The strikes were precise, coordinated, and devastating. Reports from Tehran indicated at least thirty explosions across the capital. Israeli sources reported more than thirty targets struck, including the Intelligence Ministry, Defense Ministry, and presidential residence. Fars News Agency — the regime’s own outlet — confirmed explosions in downtown Tehran and smoke columns rising over multiple districts. Observers on the ground documented shattered windows along Vesal Street and Enghelab Intersection. BRT railings were torn from the ground. Walls cracked from blast overpressure. Fire trucks dispatched from Enghelab Square toward the Jomhouri area. Sina Hospital issued a full evacuation order.
Beyond Tehran, the campaign struck targets across Iran’s geographic depth. Explosions hit Isfahan, Kermanshah, Tabriz, Qom, Karaj, Khorramabad, Bandar Kangan, Bushehr, and the Konarak area of Sistan and Baluchestan near the Pakistani border. Reports emerged of strikes against the Jam missile city, the Amind missile center near Tabriz, the Seyyed al-Shohada military base in Minab, and the IRGC Amad and Support Base. In Qom, strikes reportedly targeted nuclear facilities. The Parchin military complex — long suspected of hosting weapons-related research — and the strategic oil terminal at Kharg Island were also hit. Israeli forces simultaneously struck targets in Iraq, expanding the campaign against the broader Shiite axis infrastructure.
The New York Times reported that American aircraft launched strikes from bases across the Middle East and from at least one aircraft carrier. Initial reports indicated Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from vessels in the Sea of Oman. The IDF Spokesperson confirmed that the Israeli Air Force conducted “extensive sorties” striking military targets across western Iran, including the General Staff headquarters in east Tehran, with operations continuing on the basis of precise intelligence.
An Israeli defense official told Reuters the operation had been planned for months. The start date was set weeks ago.
Decapitation
The campaign’s target list reveals strategic intent that goes far beyond counterproliferation. This was a decapitation strike against the Islamic Republic’s command architecture.
Al Jazeera’s Washington sources reported that US involvement aimed at “decapitating the Iranian regime,” with attacks concentrated on areas where Khamenei might be sheltering. Reuters reported that Khamenei was not in Tehran at the time of the strikes and had been moved to a secure location. The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported that every missile fired toward Iran carried a specific address — and that a large number of military commanders and government officials were personally targeted.
Unconfirmed reports circulated rapidly. Sources on Hebrew-language Telegram channels reported the confirmed elimination of Mohseni Ejei, head of Iran’s judiciary. Unverified claims emerged regarding an assassination attempt against Khamenei himself, a possible strike targeting Defense Minister Amir Hatami, and reports of the commander of the Iranian army being killed. Israeli senior officials told Channel 12 they had “indications of hits on significant figures in the Iranian leadership.”
Iran’s own semi-official ISNA news agency published a remarkable statement: the intensity and scope of the initial attacks, especially at sensitive points, led to the killing and destruction of “a significant number of personnel of the Revolutionary Guards Corps,” many of whom held “important operational and specialized posts.” For a regime news agency to acknowledge such losses in real time suggests the damage was catastrophic.
Simultaneously, cyber operations crippled Iranian communications. The IRNA news agency was hacked. Landline phone networks went down across Tehran. Internet connectivity collapsed into a near-total blackout, according to monitoring group Netblocks. Iran’s state broadcasting organization was reportedly attacked. The BadSaba app was compromised. The regime’s ability to coordinate a response was systematically degraded.
The Iranian Street
The most consequential variable in this campaign may not be the military balance. It is the Iranian people.
Videos flooding Telegram and Iran International showed Iranian citizens reacting to the strikes with open celebration. Women shouted “Death to Khamenei” from apartment windows. Female students in a girls’ school chanted “Long live the Shah.” A citizen filmed smoke rising from the area of Khamenei’s compound and declared: “They just hit the house.” A woman smoked a hookah while cheering the explosions. Another filmed herself saying to the regime: “They messed up your mouth. Enjoy it.”
These are not isolated incidents. Nearly two months of nationwide protests — the largest since 1979, spanning over 100 cities — preceded this operation. The regime’s response was mass slaughter. Trump cited an estimated 32,000 protesters killed, a figure broadly consistent with estimates from Iranian health ministry officials themselves. The protests were driven by economic collapse, the rial’s implosion, and decades of accumulated rage against theocratic rule.
The question the coming days will answer: does the Iranian population seize this moment? During the 12-day war in June 2025, Iran’s proxy network largely stood down and left Tehran isolated. The population did not rise. This time, the scale of destruction to regime infrastructure, the explicit calls for uprising from Washington, Jerusalem, and the Pahlavi opposition, and the depth of popular anger create fundamentally different conditions.
What Comes Next
Israel has mobilized an additional 70,000 reservists on top of 50,000 already called up. All areas moved from full activity to essential activity only — schools closed, workplaces shuttered except for essential services. Israeli airspace is closed. The IDF Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, convened an assessment with top commanders. Forces are deployed in “forward defense and attack readiness across all fronts and against any adversary.”
The IDF statement made the operational trajectory clear: “The operation will continue as long as necessary.”
Iran faces a regime-level crisis. Its air defenses proved effectively nonexistent over Tehran. Israeli media noted with astonishment that the capital’s skies were uncontested. The Russian and Chinese defense systems Iran had acquired produced no observable results. The command infrastructure is shattered. Communications are severed. Key figures may be dead. The IRGC’s retaliatory strikes were real — missiles reached Israeli territory, hit a US base in Bahrain, and triggered alarms across the Gulf — but the opening exchange suggests a fundamental asymmetry in capability that Tehran cannot overcome through volume of fire alone.
The Shiite axis — Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraqi militias — faces a simultaneous, multi-front assault against the hub that funds, arms, and directs them all. As former Mossad official Shagiv Assulin noted hours before the strikes began: “We need to stop thinking in terms of arenas. This is one war against the Shiite axis led by Iran.”
He was right. The war has begun. The question now is whether it ends with the Islamic Republic still standing.
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