India has reportedly ended its presence at a strategic military base in Central Asia’s Tajikistan after nearly two decades, possibly because of Chinese and Russian pressure, according to several Indian media reports.
The Ayni air base offered India a strategic foothold outside the subcontinent and the ability to project its influence into Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan’s airspace constraints. In 2001, India used Ayni to evacuate its nationals after the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan.
Tajikistan, formerly part of the Soviet Union, borders Afghanistan, China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. India’s withdrawal underscores how Central Asia has become a quiet arena of competition among Russia, China, and India, three nuclear powers seeking to shape the region’s security balance.
Tajikistan had informed India in 2021 that the lease on the air base would not be extended, and withdrawal began in 2022, Indian online news outlet ThePrint reported on Wednesday. Tajikistan did not want to extend the lease because of pressure from Russia and China over non-regional military personnel at the base, the report added, citing unnamed sources.
India has operated the air base for nearly 25 years under a 2002 agreement with Tajikistan, which allowed New Delhi to rebuild and modernize the facility according to India TV website.
In July, China welcomed a Russian proposal for the restoration of a three-member bloc with India, that could potentially challenge U.S. influence. The idea was first floated the in the 1990s, but despite several ministerial meetings, the initiative has stalled because of tensions between China and India, with relations deteriorating in 2020 after a flare-up along disputed stretches of their border in the Himalayas raised fears of war.
Tajikistan is a member of Russia’s Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russian-led military alliance of several post-Soviet states, formed in 2002, comprising Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Belarus and Russia. To the east, Tajikistan borders China’s Xinjiang region.
Tajikistan occupies a strategic crossroads: it hosts Russia’s largest foreign military base, and receives funding from China, the EU, India, Iran, and the U.S. to bolster border security and counterterrorism capabilities, according to the Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute (BISI), a UK-based think tank.
Andrea Stauder, senior analyst at BISI, wrote in a July analysis on Tajikistan’s regional importance: “While Russia and China remain dominant, India has an opportunity to expand its role beyond security into economic engagement.”
India’s exit from Tajikistan’s Ayni base strengthens Russian and Chinese influence, narrowing New Delhi’s military reach in Central Asia. India may now lean on economic and diplomatic ties to maintain regional influence.
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