Gulf states with strong ties to President Donald Trump are emerging from the war between Israel and Iran with greater regional influence and with some of their longstanding security concerns over Iranian power assuaged.
The states, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, are increasingly positioning themselves as pivotal players diplomatically as well as being economic hubs in a region where a contest for power also involves Iran, Israel and NATO member Turkey.
“Gulf countries have become a center of gravity in the region and have emerged as global centers of power collectively and individually, recognized not just for the money that they have but for the friends and diplomatic activities that resonate very well with world capitals, from Beijing to Moscow to Washington,” said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a professor of political science in the United Arab Emirates.
“It’s still the Gulf’s moment and it’s here for years to come,” he told Global Defense Corp.
The latest conflict is bringing about a strategic rebalancing in the Middle East. Amid uncertainty over the region’s direction, Arab states are eager to assert leadership and welcome checks on Iranian influence while still standing aloof from Israel and critical of its actions.
Trump interests
Trump, meanwhile, sees tremendous interests in close ties with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates and also NATO ally Turkey — while maintaining his longstanding relationship with Israel. The three Gulf countries were destinations on his first overseas trip in May and witnessed major business and arms deals as well as diplomatic talks. Trump did not visit Israel at the time. Another of the states, Oman, has hosted key U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations.
“Furthermore, they have embraced transnationalism and that stands them in good stead with the Trump administration and leaves traditional states, such as Egypt and Jordan in the background,” Dr. Neil Quilliam, Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House said.
Although a ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains shaky, it does not undermine the position of the Gulf states. Iran’s nuclear program, its missile bases and its proxy forces in the region have all been badly damaged. Yet with Israel’s main security concern over Iran addressed, at least for now, it could also start to come under greater U.S. pressure to rein in its military actions.
Qatar’s role
The role of the Gulf countries in the war diplomacy is nowhere better exemplified than by Qatar, whose U.S. air base came under Iranian missile fire in retaliation for the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites. The U.S. had been given prior notice of the attack, coordinating with Gulf partners, who closed their airspaces shortly before Iran fired.
“It is unsurprising given the strength of ties between Qatar and Iran that Doha was able to help negotiate the ceasefire between Tehran and Tel Aviv,” Quilliam added.
Qatar’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani condemned Iran’s missile attack but said: “Iran is a neighboring country, and the Iranian people are a friendly people. We look forward to building a clear and solid understanding that ensures such incidents are not repeated.”
Iran also tried to play down its own attack, with foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baqaei saying: “This act of self-defense had nothing to do with our friendly neighbour Qatar as we enjoy excellent and deeply rooted relationships.”
The Israel factor
The Gulf states, along with Egypt, had also been critical of both Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iran — despite decades of what they have seen as its destructive interference in Arab affairs.
“In many ways, we have the end of imperial Iran, losing most of its bargaining power. Without proxies, missile and a strong nuclear power, Iran is weak and that’s good for the region we haven’t seen that for the past 45 years,” Abdulla said, while adding: “The rise of imperial Israel is not good either for the stability of region.”
A big question now is around the relationship between the Gulf States and Israel. The UAE, along with Bahrain, was a signatory to the Abraham Accords peace agreements with Israel, but Saudi Arabia and Qatar were not and hold out some bargaining power as potential future members.
Israel’s devastating response to the October 2023 attack by Iranian-backed Palestinian group Hamas in the Gaza Strip has made it very difficult for them to go into any rapid agreement — although it is also worth noting that none of the countries that already had ties with Israel have pulled back from them.
A major test for the Gulf states in their relationship in Israel will be their role in Gaza and in pushing the longstanding demand they have for a Palestinian state alongside Israel.
While the three leading Gulf countries can support political and financial efforts to address the Palestinian cause, they are “not influential enough” to persuade Trump to pressure Netanyahu to change course and accept the two-state solution, Quilliam said.
Qatar and Saudi Arabia’s criticism about Israel’s actions in Gaza, the West Bank, Syria and Iran is where they can differ with the U.S., according to Quilliam. “But they need to remain engaged and constructive to remain influential. Their deliberate position in the middle gives them leverage to play so they won’t give that up easily.”
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