Within just 48 hours of launching its campaign, Israel claimed air superiority over western Iran, including the capital Tehran. Israeli jets now drop bombs from inside Iranian skies instead of relying on expensive long-range missiles. This marks a major strategic gain, especially when compared to Russia’s enduring failure to control Ukrainian skies after more than three years of war.
Israel’s control over Iranian airspace is not just about planes—it’s about precision, coordination, and speed. It’s what Russia hoped to achieve in Ukraine but could not.
Why Russia failed where Israel has succeeded
Russia’s air force—one of the world’s largest—has been unable to gain full air control over Ukraine since February 2022. Instead, the conflict devolved into slow, costly trench warfare. Israel’s campaign against Iran has gone in the opposite direction.
“The two campaigns are showing the fundamental importance of air superiority in order to succeed in your overall military objectives,” said retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula. “In the case of the Israel-Iran war, it allows them unhindered freedom to attack where they possess air superiority over segments of Iran.”
The difference, experts say, lies in planning and execution. Israel’s air force is smaller but far more agile, better integrated with intelligence and cyber capabilities, and equipped with modified fifth-generation F-35 jets.
High-risk missions, high precision
“Over the past 24 hours, we completed an aerial route to Tehran and conducted an aerial breaching battle,” said Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, Israeli Chief of General Staff. “IAF pilots are flying at great risk to their lives, hundreds of kilometres away from Israel, striking hundreds of different targets with precision.”
With Iran’s air defences largely disabled, older Israeli aircraft like the F-15 and F-16 have joined the fight. These now deploy short-range JDAM and Spice-guided bombs—cheap, widely available, and deadly.
Lessons from Ukraine, but a weaker enemy
Military analysts agree that Iran’s air defences were easier to defeat than Ukraine’s. “Israel achieved surprise and overmatch over Iran’s air defences, which represented a much easier target set than Ukraine’s,” said Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment. “The asymmetry in qualitative capability between Israel’s air force and Russia is also vast.”
Retired British Air Marshal Edward Stringer points to culture and training. “All the Russians have is pilots. They grow these pilots to drive flying artillery, and that’s it,” he said. In contrast, Israel’s military integrates cyber, air, and intelligence capabilities with tight cohesion.
Iran caught off guard by design
Unlike Ukraine, which was warned of an impending Russian invasion and dispersed its air-defence systems in early 2022, Iran was deceived. Israeli threats were timed around U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for 15 June. Instead, war began on the 13th.
Covert Israeli operations destroyed Iranian air-defence nodes with short-range drones. Intelligence teams assassinated senior IRGC leaders. Michael Horowitz, an Israeli geopolitical analyst, said, “Basically, what Israel did with Iran is what Russia wanted to do with Ukraine… but Iranian regime unpopularity made infiltration easier.”
Israel’s multi-layered defence keeps retaliatory strikes in check
Despite maintaining air superiority, Israel continues to face ballistic missile attacks from Iran. Many of these have been intercepted, but some have reached Tel Aviv and other cities. The Israeli military confirmed it intercepted “the vast majority of the missiles” while acknowledging “a few impacts on buildings.”
Israel’s air defence system comprises several layers:
- Iron Dome: Designed to intercept short-range rockets, operational since 2011, with over 90% success rate.
- Arrow-2 and Arrow-3: Long-range interceptors targeting ballistic missiles even outside the atmosphere. Built with U.S. support.
- David’s Sling: Targets medium-range threats. Built by Rafael and U.S. firm Raytheon.
- Iron Beam: A laser-based system still under development. Promising low-cost interception, but not yet operational.
- U.S. THAAD system: Deployed in Israel and used by the U.S. to intercept incoming Iranian missiles.
- Air-to-air defences: Israeli jets and helicopters have intercepted drones. Jordan’s air force also downed projectiles entering its airspace.
Why Iran’s air defences failed
Iran relied on a fragmented mix of Russian S-300s, Chinese batteries, and local Bavar-373 systems—none of which were adequately integrated. Crucially, Iran invested more in its missile capabilities and regional proxies than in defending its own skies.
The air defence radar was Russian and Chinese-made, which have known issues of target discrimination, without any integration among bases and military units.
“Iran never relied on air defences alone to ward off attacks like this. The idea was always to use deterrence,” said Fabian Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. But that deterrence—primarily Hezbollah—was crippled last year and physically cut off from Iran.
Syrian air-defence systems had already been bombed by Israel, effectively opening a corridor for Israeli jets into Iran. Tehran’s underinvestment now appears to have been a costly miscalculation.
| Capability | Israeli Air Force | Iranian Air Force | Russian Air Force |
| Fighter Jets | F-35I Adir, F-15I, F-16 | F-5, F-14 Tomcat, MiG-29 | Su-35, Su-30SM, MiG-29, Su-24, Su-25, Tu-22, Tu-95 |
| Pilot training | Highly trained, experienced and professional | Virtually no training or minor training with the Russians | Poorly trained pilots |
| Intelligence | The Israeli Air Force has the best advanced intelligence. Spy satellite, commercial satellite images. Mossad spy networks inside Iran. | None | None |
| Early warning | EL/W-2085 and EL/W-2090 to main air superiority | None | A-50 |
| Networking | Link16 data link, satellite links, sensor fusions through ground and airborne commands | None | None |
| Mission planning | Israel demonstrated the best mission planning in the world. | None | Haphazard mission planning |
| Aerial refueling | KC-46 | None | IL-76 |
Striking the source: Israel targets Iran’s launch systems
Israel’s next move is clear: prevent more missile strikes by targeting launchers on the ground. “The best way to shoot a missile is on the ground while it’s in a container,” said retired U.S. Air Force Gen. Timothy Ray. “What the Israelis are doing is just steadily leveraging an advantage.”
Civilian casualties continue to mount on both sides. But from a strategic standpoint, time now appears to be on Israel’s side.
This unfolding air war is being closely watched. From Washington to New Delhi, defence planners are studying it in detail. As British Air Marshal Martin Sampson put it, “From Israel’s side, the campaign objective is to destroy and degrade—and Iran doesn’t have that ability.”
The Israel-Iran conflict, like the Ukraine war, offers hard truths about modern warfare. The biggest among them? The side that controls the skies, controls the war.
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