Israel has been pushing to strike Iran for months, if not years. Signs this week that an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities was potentially imminent have ratcheted up fears of a regional conflict, particularly in light of the US withdrawal of some diplomatic staff and their dependents from Iraq and the wider region.
US President Donald Trump’s comments have added to the sense that a military confrontation is coming, saying on Thursday that a strike “could very well happen”.
Israel appears to be preparing for a possible military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, a move that could redraw the Middle East map and collapse the already fragile diplomatic efforts between the United States and Tehran. American officials, while still hoping for a deal, have pulled diplomats and military families from several countries in anticipation of Iranian retaliation. So, what’s happening—and how close is the region to war?
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear for years: Israel will not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon. He repeated that message in April, saying Iran “will not have nuclear weapons, one way or the other.” Now, with Iranian proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah weakened, and parts of Iran’s air defenses damaged by previous Israeli strikes, Netanyahu and other Israeli officials believe they have a rare window of opportunity.
Analysts say Iran is currently close to producing enough enriched uranium for about 10 nuclear weapons. While building an actual bomb could take several more months, the timeline has alarmed Israeli officials, who argue that waiting much longer would give Iran time to rebuild defenses and complicate any military operation.
Is the United States on board?
Not exactly. President Donald Trump has made clear that he wants a deal, not a war. Earlier this year, he urged Netanyahu to hold off on a planned strike, saying the US was close to securing an agreement with Iran. But with negotiations stalling and Iran refusing to stop uranium enrichment entirely, President Trump has expressed growing doubts. “They seem to be delaying, and I think that’s a shame,” he said in a podcast this week. He also warned, “They can’t have a nuclear weapon. Very simple.”
Despite his frustration, the US president has not given Israel the green light for military action. There’s no evidence of plans to provide American bunker-busting bombs, intelligence, or aerial refueling—support Israel would likely need for a decisive strike on Iran’s heavily fortified sites. But President Trump also hasn’t publicly ruled out a future role in supporting Israel if the situation escalates.
What’s Iran’s response?
Iran is already planning for the worst. According to officials in Tehran, the government has drawn up plans for a massive counterstrike involving hundreds of ballistic missiles targeting Israeli cities and US military bases throughout the region. Iran’s defense minister, Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh, warned this week that “America will have to leave the region because all its military bases are within our reach.”
Iran has also vowed to rebuild any damaged nuclear infrastructure. President Masoud Pezeshkian said, “Whatever they do, we will rebuild again.”
How has the region responded?
The US is taking the threat seriously. It has withdrawn nonessential personnel from Iraq, Bahrain, and Kuwait. The US Embassy in Jerusalem restricted employee movements, allowing travel only between Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Beersheba. The Pentagon has also authorized military family members to leave voluntarily.
The UK’s maritime security agency issued a warning to ships transiting the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman, cautioning that “increased tensions within the region could lead to an escalation of military activity.”
Meanwhile, oil prices surged to their highest level since April, reflecting fears that fighting or tighter US sanctions could disrupt energy supplies.
What did the UN nuclear watchdog just say?
The IAEA passed a formal resolution on Thursday censuring Iran for failing to comply with nuclear nonproliferation obligations. It’s the first such vote in two decades and comes after months of Iran refusing to explain the presence of uranium particles at undeclared sites.
The resolution—pushed by the US, UK, France, and Germany—demands answers “without delay.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry and nuclear agency slammed the move as “political,” warning it could compel Tehran to walk away from the Nonproliferation Treaty and increase uranium enrichment.
What’s happening with nuclear talks?
Despite all the saber-rattling, diplomacy hasn’t collapsed—yet. The US and Iran are still scheduled to meet for a sixth round of negotiations in Oman on Sunday. President Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, will meet Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Witkoff said this week, “A nuclear Iran represents an existential threat to Israel. … We must stand resolute and united against this danger.”
But the talks are on shaky ground. The US wants Iran to stop all uranium enrichment. Iran insists it will not give up its “right” to enrich. Unless that gap closes, the risk of war grows by the day.
Could Israel go it alone?
Technically, yes—but not without difficulty. Israel has a powerful air force, precision weapons, and operational experience. But Iran’s key facilities at Fordow and Natanz are buried deep underground, protected by reinforced bunkers that only American B-2 bombers and bunker-busting munitions can reliably destroy.
Even with surprise and speed on its side, Israel would struggle to eliminate the full program without triggering a massive war. And any Iranian response could drag US forces into the conflict anyway.
While Israel has clearly laid the groundwork for a possible strike—through air force drills, military coordination with the United States, and public messaging about Iran’s nuclear threat—there are additional signs that could suggest an attack is imminent, possibly within hours or days. These late-stage indicators would be harder to detect and are often veiled by deliberate misinformation. But based on historical precedent and military logic, several red flags would stand out if Israel were truly about to act.
First, Israel would likely implement an operational quiet period in both military and civilian aviation. This might include the grounding of civilian air traffic, a subtle but telling move, and the rerouting or rescheduling of military training flights. During the lead-up to previous major operations, such as strikes on Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981 and Syria’s Al-Kibar site in 2007, Israel imposed communications blackouts and temporary airspace restrictions to reduce the risk of exposure. Commercial satellite tracking of airspace closures over Israeli or regional airspace might be one of the first public clues.
Second, we might see a surge in cyber activity, either directed at Iran or emanating from Israeli defense infrastructure. Such operations are typically used to blind enemy radar or disrupt command-and-control systems shortly before kinetic strikes. While cyberattacks are difficult to trace in real time, reports of digital disruptions in Iranian infrastructure or emergency alerts issued within Iran itself could hint at imminent action.
Another clue could come in the form of last-minute diplomatic maneuvering, especially from Washington. If the United States receives intelligence that an Israeli strike is hours away, we would expect urgent phone calls between the White House, the Pentagon, and Israeli leadership. These communications may not be made public immediately, but sudden shifts in language from US officials, such as calls for de-escalation, unexpected briefings, or leaked warnings to allies in Europe or the Gulf, could be indicative.
Additionally, Israel may raise its national alert level, though not necessarily in a public way. Internal mobilization of Israel’s Home Front Command, activation of air defense systems like Iron Dome and Arrow, or a surge in IDF reserve call-ups would suggest that Israeli leaders are bracing for Iranian retaliation. If these moves are detected by foreign intelligence agencies or regional news sources, they could signal that an operation is imminent.
Finally, quiet coordination with Arab Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or Bahrain, could be a subtle tell. While these countries do not formally support Israeli military action, there is precedent for quiet cooperation in airspace management, radar surveillance, and post-strike containment. Evidence of Gulf states issuing vague “regional security” travel advisories or tightening their own air defenses might indicate they’ve been looped into Israeli plans.
That said, Israel is known for executing surprise strikes with minimal external leakage. A sudden and unannounced Israeli military move, particularly by F‑35I stealth fighters or missile-equipped submarines, could occur with little to no warning. The absence of indicators may itself be intentional.
It’s a dangerous moment. US and Israeli officials say Israel is ready to launch an attack within days. Iran is promising retaliation. American embassies are on alert. And the world’s nuclear watchdog has formally declared Iran noncompliant.
Everything now hinges on what happens in Oman this weekend—and whether any last-minute diplomacy can keep this powder keg from exploding.
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